The Stakes in the 2008 Election

Deepak Tripathi

“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power,” said Abraham Lincoln, the 16th president of the United States, almost a hundred-and-fifty years ago. 

Today, the presidency of George W. Bush is in its twilight months. The season of presidential debates of 2008 has begun. America is in the midst of Palin-mania. Opinion polls predict a tight race between John McCain and Barack Obama. And I am reminded of the eternal truth spoken by Lincoln all those years ago.

The conduct of the Bush administration has affected the lives of countless people in America and around the world. As American voters approach polling day on November 4 to elect his successor, the outside world ponders with them. What have the last eight years been like? Where is America headed and what would it mean?  

President George W. Bush was never a subtle politician. His personal charm and southern directness attracted many Americans and helped him win two elections for the White House. Each time, he also had a stroke of luck. The Bush victory in November 2000 was one of the most controversial, and disputed, presidential election results in the history of the United States. Just five electoral college votes separated him from his Democrat opponent, Al Gore. The state of Florida, with 25 electoral votes, gave that victory to Bush. Overall, Bush got half a million fewer popular votes than Al Gore, his defeated rival. The legal battle after the election went right up to the American Supreme Court, which decided that the recount of ballots by hand in Florida was unconstitutional and the Republican Secretary of State of Florida could certify the result. 

The Florida vote count which gave George W. Bush the victory was so controversial because his brother, Jeb, was Governor there. The Secretary of State, Katherine Harris, who certified the Florida vote, was not only a member of Governor Jeb Bush’s cabinet. She was also co-chairman of the presidential campaign of George W. Bush in the state. In the end, a majority of just 537 popular votes out of a total of nearly six million ballots cast in Florida decided the result. It was certified by a close ally of Bush and a recount by hand was declared unconstitutional in a U.S. Supreme Court dominated by conservative judges.  

Four years later, it was his ‘war on terror’ that, despite serious doubts, convinced America that it was not the time to reject an incumbent president. The 2004 presidential campaign was particularly nasty, just as the 2008 campaign is turning out. The neo-conservatives, who ran the Bush campaign, focused on national security. Bush was projected as a decisive leader. His Democrat rival, John Kerry, was depicted as a ‘flip-flopper’ by none other than the Vice President, Dick Cheney, to many the most powerful figure in the administration. One of Kerry’s slogans ‘Strong at home, respected in the world’ drew accusations that Kerry would pay more attention to domestic concerns, implying that defense would be ignored. Questions were raised about the legitimacy of the medals Kerry had been awarded during his military service in Vietnam. Bush had never fought in any war. But the 2004 Republican campaign was vicious. Kerry stood little chance.  

Today, John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, lives in the glory of the Vietnam War, in which he endured abuse after capture and America lost. What was his achievement? The Republicans would not tell.

A president who has served eight years in office is bound to leave a legacy. The single issue that defines the legacy of George W. Bush is ‘the war on terror’, pursued relentlessly during all but a few months of his presidency. It is tempting to suggest that the nature of American foreign policy under his administration was the consequence of the 9/11 attacks on the United States. But the explanation is simplistic. It provides no more than a convenient, and not entirely accurate, context to the ‘war on terror’.

In truth, the fundamental characteristic of the Bush presidency has been an uncomplicated view of the world and America’s role in it. Behind the jingoistic frenzy, whipped up by the McCain-Palin ticket in the 2008 campaign, there is a much more profound question. What will a McCain-Palin administration, with an uncomplicated worldview and America’s role, mean for the country and the world?

The retaliation against the Taleban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks was understandable. But the scope of American ambition under Bush was something else. The campaign to overthrow the Iraqi regime in March 2003 on the basis of false assertions, the countless civilian deaths, the abduction, incarceration and abuse of tens of thousands of innocent people amount to crimes for which the leaders of many lesser countries would face trial. For a while, it looked as though Iran and Syria would be the next targets in the ‘war on terror’. Reckless threats of military action against Iran still continue. McCain and Palin may well carry on the same path, even though America remains bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq.  

The ideological vehicle used to get George W. Bush elected to the White House in November 2000 was the Project for the New American Century. By 2006, it had become a discredited and disbanded organization. However, a new band of Republicans aggressively pushing the same ideology has risen again in support of the McCain-Palin ticket. The old and discredited neo-conservatives like Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Bolton and Jeb Bush sought to link domestic controversies surrounding the Clinton administration to what they described as a drift in American foreign and defense policy. While domestic critics focused on the personal conduct of Bill and Hillary Clinton, the Project for the New American Century attacked the President’s agenda for economic recovery. The implication was that Clinton’s economic program had a cost – weaker defense.

It is an irony that many enthusiastic supporters of Hillary Clinton should now contemplate switching to the McCain-Palin ticket, given that it represents the opposite of Clinton.

The message of the neo-conservative constituency of George W. Bush was unmistakable – a more interventionist America, referring back to ‘Reaganite policy of military strength and moral clarity’. But the ambition of the new right went further – ‘to build on the successes of the past century and to ensure our security and our greatness in the next’. From the beginning, neo-conservative associations like the Project for the New American Century believed that American power was absolute in its potential and that its use was inevitable. The language of McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, echoes the same aggressive sentiment.

At this point, I want to discuss the general disposition of America’s political right in recent years. In broad terms, it is an ideological movement representing a range of political and social organizations, which can be divided into two streams – neo-conservatism and the religious right. On the one hand, there are the new conservatives. Their rise in the late 1990s can be attributed to the rebirth of the coalition that came together under Ronald Reagan twenty years before. Many leading figures of the neo-conservative movement were younger politicians and thinkers who had been out of power during the Clinton presidency. The other stream of the political right is religious.

There are significant differences in the American Christian right, ranging from Lutheranism and Catholicism to the more conservative Evangelical, Pentecostal and Fundamentalist Churches. White Evangelical voters account for more than 20 percent of the American electorate. Their overwhelming support for George W. Bush was largely responsible for his success in the two presidential elections. He received 68 percent of the white Evangelical vote in the 2000 election; it was 78 percent four years later.

There are differences, but there is also common ground, between those who make up the American political right. Differences are easier to identify on social issues. Moderate right-wingers tend to be less vehement in their opposition to abortion, stem cell research and homosexuals and less staunch in their support of the death penalty. At the other end of the religious right, there are those whose views on marriage, women’s rights, abortion and homosexuality are extreme.

One of the most controversial personalities of the religious right, preacher-politician Reverend Pat Robertson, has called feminism as a form of ‘socialist, anti-family political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians’. In 1998, Robertson claimed that acceptance of homosexuality could result in hurricanes, earthquakes and terrorist attacks. In the wake of the outcry after these remarks, he returned to the topic and, quoting from the Bible, sought to justify them. 

Such demagogy, and attempts to resort to selective use of religious texts to legitimize extreme views, are not exclusive to the political right or left. Nor are they limited to the Christian right. We hear a lot about Islamic fundamentalism, far less about Jewish, Hindu and Buddhist fundamentalisms. They, too, have been responsible for so much unrest in the Middle East, South Asia and other parts of the world. However, we must not lose the focus of discussion here. Our discussion is about the mass movement responsible for the presidency of George W. Bush. 

Three main aspects characterize that movement. First, a strong belief in America’s power and its right to exercise that ability. Second, a conviction in the superiority of Judeo-Christian values. And third, a strongly pro-Israel and anti-Muslim agenda. I referred earlier to the views of Pat Robertson, the preacher-politician. The rhetoric of another leading figure on the American right, Bill O’Reilly, is also worth mentioning. During a radio discussion about an opinion poll showing that most Iraqis did not see American troops as liberators and wanted them to leave the country, O’Reilly told listeners that he had ‘no respect’ for the Iraqi people; they were a ‘pre-historic group’ and the lesson from the Iraq War was for America not to intervene in the Muslim world again, but ‘bomb the living daylights out of them’. His support for coercive techniques to extract information at detention centers such as Guantánamo Bay, trial in military tribunals and opposition to offering the detainees protection under the Geneva Conventions is well documented.

The rhetoric of people like Robertson and O’Reilly cannot be dismissed as irrelevant and unrepresentative. Both command huge audiences through their television and radio programs. Many aspects of the ‘war on terror’ show the influence such views have had in the Bush administration. It is undoubtedly America’s war. But to bypass its obligations under the Geneva Conventions, the Bush administration invented a new concept of ‘enemy combatant’ for detainees at Guantanamo Bay and other detention centers.

After sustained international criticisms and legal battles in the United States, the White House announced in July 2006 that it would comply with the third convention which guarantees the basic protection to detainees. The administration had no other choice after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the special military commissions set up to prosecute detainees violated U.S. law and the Geneva Conventions. It was a symbolic victory for opponents. Administration officials continued to argue about what really amounted to degrading and inhuman treatment, which is illegal under the fourth convention. The White House and the Pentagon maintained that the detainees were already treated humanely in the light of legislation passed in Congress barring ‘cruel, inhumane and degrading treatment’ of detainees.

The overall disposition of the Bush administration since January 2001 reflects the instinctive belief across the new political right that American power is unlimited and unaccountable and the United States could decide unilaterally whether, when and to whom an international treaty would apply. The essence of such a mind-set is ‘we will do it because we can’. In this respect, there is considerable unity of purpose across America’s political right. It is driven by a domestic agenda. Foreign policy is an instrument to satisfy the conservative coalition at home for the sake of power.

As Americans approach polling day on November 4 to elect the next president, Lincoln’s axiom assumes profound importance. Nearly all men can stand adversity and John McCain undoubtedly endured torture after being taken prisoner in Vietnam. That should not be the real issue, however. The real issue should be the character of the man who would be president – John McCain or Barack Obama. For, as Lincoln said, he is going to be tested by economic and foreign-policy problems unparalleled since America’s withdrawal from Vietnam more than three decades ago.

 

The above article appeared in OpEdNews on 26 September 2008.

Bush’s policy turn in the ‘war on terror’

Deepak Tripathi

As George W. Bush limps towards the finish line of his turbulent presidency, two recent events on the other side of the globe, in the region that has been the main battleground in his ‘war on terror’, are of particular interest. One, the ascendency of Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto, to the presidency of Pakistan. The other, the decision by the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers’ Group to grant a ‘waiver’ to India, after intense lobbying by the White House. The ‘waiver’ clears the way for India, a nuclear weapons state, to buy nuclear components and fuel for use in its civilian power plants. The interest of the Bush administration in this whole process has been strong and is indicative of America’s changing policy in South Asia – be tougher with Pakistan and court India.

Under a unique arrangement, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. watchdog, and suppliers have agreed to do nuclear business with India. In doing so, they have accepted the reality of the country’s nuclear arsenal. India refuses to sign the Western-backed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Its argument is that the treaty is discriminatory against countries not recognized as nuclear powers. A separate agreement with the United States is yet to be approved by Congress. Only then will America be able to sell nuclear material and technology to India for civilian use. But India will soon be able to do business with other nuclear suppliers. An agreement with France is close.

The rise of Zardari to the presidency in Pakistan, and India’s welcome into the nuclear club, may appear to be unconnected events. But they are parts of the same strategic environment in which the great powers, America and Russia, as well as the emerging countries and regional players such as China, India and Pakistan, have to live. They are rivals, as well as allies. The long-term goal of each is to outdo the others economically and militarily. But they must cooperate in the short run as they pursue their objective.

There is a realization in Beijing, Delhi and Islamabad that the policy of the Bush administration has been too aggressive and militaristic. It exacerbated the phenomenon of terrorism which it professed to defeat. The toll in civilian deaths, injuries, broken families and exiled refugees is enormous. The anti-American sentiment has provided fuel to the fires of violence. It has created a serious threat to the stability of Pakistan and increasingly in parts of China and India. The recent bomb attacks in Delhi, killing and wounding scores of shoppers, are the latest sign of India’s vulnerability to the growing militancy in the region. Even claims of the much-heralded American military surge and the resultant decline in the violence in Iraq should be seen in context.

Bob Woodward, the veteran reporter of the Washington Post, speaks of a secret operation of targeted assassinations that has brought down violence in Iraq. I recently asked an Iraqi researcher, just back from Baghdad, after a meeting at a London think-tank what she thought was behind the reduction in violence. Her reply: “There is less killing because there is no one to kill in mixed Shi’a-Sunni communities. The unfortunate have already been killed. The fortunate have fled to safer places in Iraq, turning it into a deeply segregated society, or fled the country.” Even so, civilian deaths in Iraq often go un-noticed in the international media while America boasts about a reduction in violence after the surge.

George W. Bush sits today amid the vast wreckage left by his presidency. The two events I mentioned earlier – the election of Zardari in Pakistan and the entry of India into the nuclear club – have an important meaning for America’s policy after Bush, irrespective of the result of the November 2008 election. The appetite for bloodthirsty militarism is diminished in the Bush White House. The simple-minded policy of reliance on Pakistan’s military dictator, now deposed General Pervez Musharraf, in the ‘war on terror’ has failed. In the court of public opinion in the region and beyond, America stands in the dock. What can possibly be achieved in these circumstances with the same policies?

In Zardari as president, Pakistan has a leader that America can trust. He is controversial and weak. He needs to work with the military – something the Washington establishment prefers. The Pakistani military’s need for American aid remains great. So, in the end, it is likely to listen to Washington, putting the history of hostility and distrust for the People’s Party led by Zardari behind – for now.

The hope in Washington is that the coalition of Zardari, the civilian politician in the front, and the military can keep the rest of the Pakistani opposition at bay. The proclamation by President Zardari that he would fight the Islamist militants will go down well in Washington. However, with powerful agencies of the Pakistani military close to the fundamentalist groups which they have traditionally supported, there must remain doubts about his ability to deliver. The recent presidential directive, which allows the US forces to launch attacks inside Pakistan from Afghanistan, has also begun to cause tensions with the Pakistani military. It cannot appear to be standing by as American military incursions take place, for fear of inflaming the public opinion in Pakistan even more.

America’s new approach towards India, a secure democracy, is a recognition that the main bulwark against militancy cannot be Pakistan. It has to be Pakistan’s rival, neighbor and the second most populous country after China. It marks the end of the traditional U.S. preference for Pakistan during the Cold War and again in the last seven years since 9/11. However, the rules of the game with India have to be different.

India is too large and independent to be dictated to. Its economy is growing at an astonishing rate. The west needs India as much as India needs the west. America’s evolving policy is an acknowledgment of these realities. On the one hand, with Pakistan facing escalating violence and disorder, the main frontier against turmoil is to be India. On the other, it would, in the long run, serve as a counter to the growing military and economic power of China, where the Communist Party is supreme.

The above article appeared in Online Journal on 16 September 2008.

John McCain as John Major: Politics, Morality and the GOP

Deepak Tripathi

The gloom of Hurricane Gustav was promptly blown away by the arrival of Sarah Palin, the running mate of John McCain, at the Republican Convention in St. Paul. The partisan delegates seemed genuinely thrilled by her acceptance speech. But developments of the past week across the country remind me of an historic truth of politics. Almost fifty years ago, Harold Macmillan, then British prime minister, was asked what he thought was the greatest obstacle to political achievement. “Events, dear boy, events,” came the reply from Macmillan. His words seem to have a powerful resonance in the US presidential campaign today.

The historic nature of Palin’s nomination and her galvanizing effect on the Republican faithful cannot be dismissed. But new revelations about herself and her family almost every day are impossible to ignore either. Some of these are acknowledged. Others are contested. Complaints of exaggeration and distortion abound and threats of legal action fly. Republican advisors are irritated at the questions raised about Palin’s selection by McCain, her qualifications and her views. In the face of persistent questioning by Justine Webb, the BBC Washington correspondent, a senior McCain advisor, Carly Fiorina, seemed angry, calling Palin’s treatment by the media ‘sexist’. With a Democratic presidential candidate of mixed white-African lineage and a female candidate for the vice presidency on the Republican side, race and gender cannot be far from the debate. 

It is the unexpected and unwanted events, which I referred to earlier, that represent ‘red lights’ for the Republican campaign. As soon as McCain had announced his surprise choice of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential running mate, the troopergate controversy blew up. It involves the dismissal of the Public Safety Commissioner, Walter Monegan, of the state of Alaska by Governor Palin. Was Monegan sacked because he was no good in the job? Or because of his reluctance to fire the Governor’s ex-brother-in-law?  On September 4, the Washington Post reported that it had seen an e-mail from Governor Palin, harshly criticizing Alaska state troopers for their failure to sack her former brother-in-law and ridiculing an investigation into her own conduct in the affair.

Then the announcement came that her teenage daughter was pregnant with her boyfriend. Palin is a strong advocate of sexual abstinence before marriage. So the episode was bound to pose a serious dilemma, as well as cause discomfort, for the Palin family. America is a country of fascinating contrasts. It is a nation where state and religion are supposed to remain separate. But religious and moral debate has acquired an increasingly important role in politics, most notably, but not exclusively, on the Republican side. The risks of this phenomenon are obvious. For those humans who fail to live by what they preach may be accused of inconsistency and hypocrisy.

It gets more embarrassing. According to the New York Times of September 3, Palin’s husband, Todd, is a former member of the Alaska Independence Party – a party which wants to hold a referendum to secede from the United States. And the newspaper quoted officials as saying that she had attended the party’s conventions in 1994 and 2006. As governor, she sent a video-taped message to the convention last year.

How Palin’s religious faith shaped her worldview was illustrated by an address she gave to a church gathering as recently as three months ago. She told the congregation that America sent troops to fight in the Iraq war on a “task that is from God.” Imagine the effect of these words on the people of Iraq, where hundreds of thousands of men, women and children have perished for no fault of their own and millions have been displaced internally or gone into exile.

The Republican Party’s counter-attack on the probing media has begun. But questions about Palin’s past are unlikely to go away. The more appearances Palin makes on the campaign trail, the more interest there is going to be in her. And the more questions both McCain and Palin are going to face. From tabloids like the National Enquirer to highbrow papers such as the Washington Post and the New York Times, a range of news outlets have deployed extra staff. Alaska has become a favorite haunt for many reporters.

The problem the Republicans face in this campaign is simple, yet considerable. There is so much interest in Governor Sarah Palin, because so little is known about her. It is a problem which is easy to understand, but difficult to tackle as ‘events’ unfold.

I have witnessed political storms caused by events in my time. In his address to the Republican National Convention, John McCain ran through his military record, which thousands of party faithful applauded and more admire across America. As the speech went on, I heard the words ‘back to basics’. They instantly reminded me of Britain in 1993. The government of Margaret Thatcher’s successor, John Major, was weak and tired. Major was struggling with the grim state of the economy and social unrest. At a time of need for a huge investment of new ideas and money, the governing Conservative Party launched, perhaps fatally, the ‘Back to Basics’ campaign. It was filled with high moral tone, at a time when the baggage of divisive, failing policies was heavy.

The campaign sparked intense public interest in the private lives of elected politicians in Britain. It was unfair to individuals. But the public interest was legitimate, precisely because it was an attempt to impose a set of rules on the vast majority of people that the imposers themselves did not respect. Exposé after exposé followed and powerful figures were forced to resign. The tide overwhelmed the Major government, ending in a resounding defeat in the 1997 general election – a humiliation from which the Conservative Party has only recently begun to recover. 

There are episodes of history in America and elsewhere that mirror the fate of the Major government and shout out loud the lesson to be learned. When politicians bring prescriptive solutions to moral and ethical questions, they do so at their own peril. These questions are best left to the law and the courts.

The above commentary was published in CounterPunch on 5 September 2008.

On the Race for the White House

Deepak Tripathi

The season of party conventions will soon be over and America is poised for two months of hard campaigning to elect the next president. There will be debates between Barack Obama and John McCain and between their running mates. The media blitz will get more fierce. Personal attacks will entertain and appall. For the first time in American history, there is serious contender of mixed race for the White House. It makes the issue of race an integral part of the political debate. Some Americans are going to continue to raise it openly. More could well make their choice, after a long period of reflection, one way or the other, as late as the moment of casting their vote.

In the past, I have seen the American democracy at work from close. As I follow the campaign in 2008 from across the Atlantic in Britain, the distance gives me the opportunity of detachment. I hope it allows me a panoramic view of the political tides that are to sweep across America before polling day on November 4. And it makes it possible to look at the democracy in America alongside the leading democracies in Europe and the place citizens of different races and creeds have in them. My interest in America is abiding – a country where I first arrived as a twenty-two-year-old to work as far back as 1974. My young grandchildren are Americans and live there.

Already, I have seen opposite currents in the campaign. On the one hand, a desperate desire for change after eight years of war, economic hemorrhaging and damage to America’s image under the Bush presidency. On the other, the tentative allegiance of sections of potential Democrat voters, despite powerful pledges of support for Barack Obama from Senator Hillary Clinton and the former President, Bill Clinton.

On the one hand, a show of unity between the two rival camps as the Democratic Convention moved towards conclusion. On the other, the uncertainty among some white Americans across the nation, in particular women supporters of Hillary Clinton, who have threatened to switch to John McCain, the Republican. Questions about race and faith, unfair in my view, are barely concealed. Obama’s advisers realize the need to go beyond his powerful rhetoric, to address middle class concerns and to win over undecided voters to give him the victory. How far does his acceptance speech, on the twin themes of rebuilding the economy and restoring America’s moral leadership abroad, go will be clearer as the campaign moves on.

The United States presidency has been a monopoly of Anglo-American politicians since the founding of the country more than two centuries ago. In a country of immigrants from all over the world, this, in itself, is a paradox. Now, the prospect of a break from history is near, but forces of resistance persist. Political fortunes can change rapidly. There is no better acknowledgement of it than by Harold Wilson, the British prime Minister in the 1960s and 1970s, who said that “a week in politics is a long time.” We have seen it in the current campaign in the month of August.

With the battle of the primaries over, and the prospect of an Obama presidency closer, we have seen a shift in the public opinion in August, with McCain running neck-and-neck, or leading. Not all potential voters are convinced that Obama offers something radically different. And there are those who doubt his ability to deliver, saying that promises of reform often become hostages to Congressional battles and resistance from corporate America. Ironically, some of the most radical ideas in America come from smaller parties and activists, like the Greens and the independents, not from the two main parties that have the monopoly of power in the country. Alternative visions are more comfortable in Germany, France and Britain than in America. The ‘tyranny of the majority’, which Alexis de Tocqueville and John Stuart Mill have written about, and which George W. Bush has exercised during his presidency, is more difficult to prevail on this side of the Atlantic.

The conflict between Georgia and Russia has created an environment suitable for jingoism. Mind not the NATO expansion around Russia under the Bush administration. Not the growing American and Israeli presence in Georgia since Mikheil Saakasvili came to power in 2004. Not even Saakasvili’s decision to bomb the breakaway region of South Ossetia, with a vast majority of Russian citizens, before the Russian military intervened. In a CNN interview, the Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, has directly accused the Bush administration of encouraging Georgia to attack South Ossetia, to help a presidential candidate in the coming election. Americans, said Putin, were present in the conflict zone, ‘doing as they were ordered’. Predictably, the White House and the State Department issued swift denials, calling the Russian accusations ‘ludicrous’ and ‘not rational’.

I am reminded at this point of something John McCain’s chief strategist, Charlie Black, said in a Fortune Magazine interview last June. With two-thirds of Americans saying the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, and growing worries about the economy, Black was asked whether another attack on U.S. soil would help McCain. His reply: “Certainly, it would be a big advantage to him.” Charlie Black later apologized for his comments.

After trailing in opinion polls for weeks, August has been a good month for McCain. Between now and November 4, the Bush administration and the Republican Party will try to keep the focus on national security. Russia is not the power the Soviet Union was. But there will be talk of the menace of Moscow. Declarations on the need for a strong America and a tough stance towards Russia will persist.

We will hear more claims of success in America’s war in Iraq, although hundreds of civilians still die there every month. Contrary to evidence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, there will be assertions about progress in the ‘war on terror’. The American military will continue its secret operation to send Guantanamo detainees to countries like Algeria, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. And claims will be made again and again that only John McCain is fit to be the president of the United States – a veteran of the Vietnam War, in which he endured torture and America lost.

It was the Vietnam War that brought the presidency of Lyndon Johnson to an abrupt end in 1968. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 after the Watergate scandal. Nixon’s handpicked successor, President Gerald Ford, gave him a full, unconditional pardon, which contributed to Ford’s defeat to Jimmy Carter two years later. Had there been no American hostage crisis in the wake of the collapse of the pro-U.S. regime in Iran, and the failed attempt to rescue the hostages, Carter might not have been defeated by Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election. And it was the perceived failure of George Bush Senior to tackle the inner-city problems after the Los Angeles riots which turned the tide against him and gave victory to Bill Clinton in 1992.

We know where the tidal waves took us in the past. Do we know what they are about to do now?

The above commentary appeared in the History News Network, Center for History and New Media, George Mason University, Virginia, on 2 September 2008.